As summer transitions to the fall color season in the mountains of Western North Carolina, year-to-date median prices are flat across the board. Buncombe has flatlined at $490,000. Burke County sits at $273,500, and McDowell County is at $300,000. In July's report, year-to-date median prices were down 2.8% in Buncombe, 1.8% in Burke, and 6.7% in McDowell. Pending sales are sending opposing messages across counties, with Buncombe down 9.8% in September, Burke up 28.6%, and McDowell up 17.6%.
Regional Scorecard: Buncombe, Burke & McDowell
Year to date (through September 2026)
Year-to-date change vs. the same period in 2025 | |||
Metric | Buncombe | Burke | McDowell |
|---|---|---|---|
Closed sales | 2,636▲ 7.3% | 572▼ 2.9% | 295▼ 9.2% |
Median sales price | $490,000● 0.0% | $273,500▼ 0.3% | $300,000▲ 0.3% |
Days on market until sale | 72▲ 28.6% | 59● 0.0% | 75▲ 19.0% |
Percent of original list price received | 93.2%▼ 1.0% | 94.3%▲ 1.0% | 91.3%▼ 1.1% |
September 2026
September change vs. September 2025 | |||
Metric | Buncombe | Burke | McDowell |
|---|---|---|---|
Closed sales | 290▲ 3.2% | 71▲ 34.0% | 40▲ 5.3% |
Median sales price | $499,000▲ 6.2% | $240,000▼ 7.7% | $302,000▲ 11.2% |
Days on market until sale | 66▼ 5.7% | 49● 0.0% | 61▼ 4.7% |
Percent of original list price received | 92.5%▲ 1.3% | 93.3%▼ 0.2% | 91.0%▲ 0.1% |
Inventory of homes for sale | 1,848▲ 4.8% | 335▲ 21.8% | 254▲ 5.8% |
Months' supply of inventory | 6.3▼ 6.0% | 5.2▲ 20.9% | 7.2● 0.0% |
Arrows show direction of change only. Green means the number rose and red means it fell, which does not always mean better or worse for a given buyer or seller. Inventory and months' supply are month-end snapshots, so there is no year-to-date figure. September-only figures can swing on small sales counts, especially in Burke and McDowell. Source: Canopy MLS, current as of October 5, 2026. Based on data from Canopy MLS, Inc.; figures may be revised.
Buncombe County: Steady Closings, Inventory Edging Up
In Buncombe County, closed sales are up 7.3% year to date (2,636 vs. 2,457) and 3.2% in September. Third-quarter closings were up roughly 9%, based on year-to-date totals.
In July, we asked whether Buncombe's inventory growth would begin to outpace closings. In June, Buncombe closings (+18.6%) were running well ahead of inventory (+5.6%). By September, inventory (+4.8%) edged ahead of closings (+3.2%). Year to date, closings still lead, so September is a signal to watch, not yet a trend.
Days on market remain well above last year's pace (+28.6% year to date), though the gap has narrowed since July, when it was +43.4%. September ran faster than last September, with days on market at 66, down 5.7%. List-to-close is up 15.2% year to date at 114 days, and sellers received 93.2% of their original list price year to date, down from 94.1%.
September pending sales fell 9.8% (296 vs. 328), which could point to softer closings in Q4, though seasonality may explain part of it.
Burke County: Closings Improve as Inventory Keeps Growing
YTD closings in Burke County improved from an 11.9% decline to a 2.9% decline. September closings increased an impressive 34%, 71 closings vs 53. Months' supply rose from 4.6 in June to 5.2 and inventory is up 21.8% alongside a new listing increase of 10.4% YTD. Unlike Buncombe and McDowell County, Burke County was the only county where sellers were able to capture more of their list price YTD – up from 93.4% to 94.3%. Days on market and list-to-close times are flat.
McDowell County: A Soft Market With Prices Holding
McDowell County has shown itself to be a soft market in previous months and it remains so. Months' supply sits at 7.2 and percent of list price declined from 92.3% to 91.3%. Days on market are up 19%, and list-to-close time is up 8.3%. YTD closings are down 9.2% but new listings are flat in the County and inventory is only up 5.8%.
What Changed Since Q2 and Our July Report?
In July we posed three questions. Here is where the answers landed.
Will Buncombe's inventory growth outpace closings?
Not by much, and only recently. By the end of June, closings were running a good bit ahead of inventory. As the end of September rolled around, inventory edged ahead. Closings are up 7.3% YTD, while new listings are up just 0.9%, so supply isn't seeing a large increase.
Will Burke's months' supply continue to rise?
Yes, it climbed from 4.6 in June to 5.2 in September. Inventory is up 21.8% from a year ago. Burke's sales have recovered, but listings grew at a quicker clip.
Will McDowell's price softening find a floor?
It looks like it has hit the floor. McDowell's YTD median price went from down 6.7% in July to up 0.3% at $300,000. However, McDowell only closes around 30-40 homes a month, so a handful of sales can skew the number in one direction or another.
A couple other items changed. Median prices flattened in all three counties. The slowdown eased: YTD days on market growth moderated from +43.4% to +28.6% in Buncombe and from +24.6% to +19% in McDowell.
Sellers
Best advice? Plan for lengthier timelines. Price for your county.
List-to-close is running at 114 days in Buncombe County, 118 in McDowell – nearly four months from listing to closing. Burke is showing steadier signals at 100 days, unchanged from last year.
Buncombe County sellers are receiving 93.2% of their original asking price (down from 94.1%), and McDowell sellers are receiving 91.3% (down from 92.3%). Burke sellers are actually receiving more than last year at 94.3% (up from 93.4%). The list price and sales price gap is most notable in McDowell County.
Buncombe's September ran faster than its year-to-date pace. Days on market were 66, down 5.7% from last September, while the year-to-date figure is still up 28.6%. Homes that are priced correctly are still moving.
Buyers
Buyer leverage varies by county.
McDowell: has the most buyer leverage of the three counties. Months' supply is 7.2, homes are selling for 91.3% of original list price, and days on market are up 19%.
Buncombe: months' supply is 6.3, above the 6-month mark. This is often utilized as the red line between a balanced and buyer-leaning market, though it is down from 6.7 a year ago. Buyers have room to negotiate, but conditions are not looser than the same time last year.
Burke: inventory is growing fastest (up 21.8%), yet sellers still captured a higher share of their list price than last year.
What to Watch in Q4
Buncombe: Will September's 9.8% decrease in pending sales (296 vs 328) show up as fewer closings this quarter? Will September's faster pace hold through Q4? Worthwhile to compare this against Q4 2025, since the fall slowdown is a seasonal trend.
Burke: Was September's closing surge (71 vs 53) a pattern set in motion, or just a strong month? It will also be interesting to see if sellers continue to capture 94% of list price as inventory climbs.
McDowell: Watch whether the $300,000 median holds firm, and whether September's 17.6% increase in pending sales (40 vs. 34) shifts into closings.
Common Questions About the 2026 Regional Market
Is the Buncombe County (Asheville) real estate market slowing down in 2026?
The market isn't slowing down in closings. It is slowing down in speed. Buncombe County closed sales are up 7.3% YTD (2,636 vs 2,457) and up 3.2% for the month of September. Burke County closings are down 2.9% YTD – an improvement from an almost 12% decline in July. September closings jumped 34%. McDowell County closings have decreased 9.2% YTD, however September was up 5.3%. Buncombe's September pending sales being down 9.8% could correlate with softer closings in Q4.
Are home prices dropping in Western North Carolina?
No, not at the moment. Year-to-date median prices have flattened in all three counties: $490,000 in Buncombe, $273,500 in Burke, and $300,000 in McDowell. In July those figures were down 2.8%, 1.8%, and 6.7% respectively. Buncombe County's average price is up 4.6% YTD – likely higher priced sales pulling the average sales price above the median sales price.
Why are homes taking longer to sell in 2026?
It varies by county. YTD, days on market are up 28.6% in Buncombe (72 days) and 19% in McDowell (75 days), while Burke is flat at 59 days. Buncombe's pace has improved since July, when it was up 43.4% and September was 5.7% faster than last September. Closed sales and pending sales YTD are both up in Buncombe County so the slower pace appears to be related to buyers taking their time with negotiation. McDowell, on the other hand, may reflect softer demand with both closings and pending sales down YTD.
Which Western North Carolina county has the most buyer negotiating power right now?
McDowell County. The county has the most supply (7.2 months), sellers are receiving 91.3% of original list price YTD, and days on market are up 19%. Burke's inventory is growing the fastest, up 21.8% from a year ago. However, sellers are receiving more of their asking price than last year (94.3%).
Need a competent guide to help you navigate a market that is continually changing? GreyBeard Realty has agents at office locations across the region: Asheville, Black Mountain, Old Fort, and Lake James. Contact our team to ensure a seamless real estate process from start to finish.