Third quarter numbers of western NC real estate are in, and the market seems to be holding fairly steady to its latest upward trend. While growth in some areas is small, there are a few particular statistics that may be very telling about the market to come.
The number of units sold countywide is up a solid 4% from 3073 for this period in 2015 compared to 3192 for the same period this year. Total sales volume for this period is up 16% from 854.8 million in 2015 to $988.8 million this year. As those increases indicate, there has been an increase in average price of 11%, from $278,156 in 2015 to $309,764 this year. As has been discussed in the most recent market reports, this increase in price was expected due to a shrinking market and an increase in demand.
And that leads to the most interesting statistics in this data, the days on the market (DOM) and the sales price/list price percentage. In the county, the number of DOM has shrunk from 124 days in 2015 to a mere 72 days in 2016, year to date, and sales price is 98% of asking price for 2016. That means that homes are not staying on the market very long, and buyers are not getting much negotiating room at this time.
The Black Mountain real estate sales market is a little different. There’s only a slight change in the number of units sold, 164 in 2015 down to 162 in 2016, a 1% decreased. Similarly, sales volume is down a small 2% from $42.3 million to $41.6 million in 2016. As that indicates, there has been a negligible change in the average price from last year. It’s important to note, however, that this statistic also may be indicative of the small supply that is available in Black Mountain right now. Anecdotally, there are interested buyers who have not been able to find a home because of the small number of homes available for sale at this time.
Interestingly, there has been a similar decline in DOM for Black Mountain, down from 141 days in 2015 to only 79 days in 2016. And again at the same time, the SP/LP percentage has increased, from 95% of asking price to 98% of asking price. And the number of units on the market has increased 15% to 129 from 112 in 2015. In this instance, there were 38 units, or 29% of the homes listed as on the market, under contract at the time the numbers were extracted for analysis. If that number is extracted from the number of units listed on the market, then the supply may actually be a bit tighter than last year at this time.
So what can be garnered from these third quarter numbers? First of all, it’s important to recognize that the Black Mountain market is smaller, making some of the numbers seem more dramatic than they are. It seems apparent that buyers are out there looking, as the DOM has decreased so dramatically across the board. Also, it seems as if perhaps sellers have decided that they can get a good price for their homes and perhaps people who were holding off on selling have now moved forward.
In the months to come, it will be fascinating to watch what interest rates do, with a rumored increase in late 2016 anticipated. While that shouldn’t have any immediate impact on buyers or sellers, it may be what’s pushing both buyers and sellers forward in this positive real estate market right now. As usual, time will tell.
And in the meantime, Greybeard Realty is ready to show you the home of your dreams. Whether you're considering a NC mountain home or the ideal Asheville log cabin for your own escape, it's a great time to own your own place in western NC. Come on up and settle into your own peaceful mountain place.
Mid-year home sales numbers in Black Mountain and the Asheville area for 2016 indicate that the upward movement continues with strong sales and a short supply. With several months of statistics on hand, it seems appropriate to begin talking about the growing trend in western NC real estate market.
For the sixth consecutive year, the number of units sold year-to-date in the county increased. In 2016, the number of units sold in the first half of the year increased 5%, from 1,878 in 2015 to 1,977 this year. At the same time, total sales volume increased a strong 19% to just over $601 million. In contrast, the number of units on the market for the last six years has declined. From a high of 3,527 units for sale six years ago, the current number of units offered countywide is 1,954. This shrinking supply has impacted the average price per home as well with a 13% increase in 2016 year to date. In fact, the average home price now exceeds the $273,844 mark in 2008.
One interesting number that bears watching is the Days on Market (DOM). That number, which has not been below 100 days in the last 8 years and has been as high as 173 days in 2012, is at 75 days, year to date. That number is an indication of the short supply. Interested buyers are finding they have to choose quickly as the short supply means that someone else may put in a better offer if they hesitate.
Black Mountain real estate market numbers, at first glance, appear to be down slightly. The number of units sold, 106 homes, is down 2% compared to 2015 numbers year to date. The average price also shows a decline of 2% for the same period, while sales volume has declined 4%. As noted, these numbers can be interpreted as a market decline.
A closer look at some additional statistics, however, indicate that these small declines are due in large part to the decline in supply. There just isn’t much on the market right now for people to choose from. The number of homes on the market, 105, is a 15 % decrease from the same time in 2015. And additionally, it’s interesting to note that while that figure of 105 units on the market seems to be adequate, it actually is misleading. At the time these numbers were compiled, 30% or 31 units were actually already under contract. The number of units on the market at mid-year 2016 is just over half of the supply that was available in 2009. This type of tight supply market can impact numbers as buyers are searching for just the right home in an area with a very limited supply.
There’s one other number in this report that has shown a dramatic decline as well, and that’s the day on market (DOM) statistic. The average Black Mountain home now stays on the market only 81 days, compared to 150 days at the same time period last year. In Buncombe County, there’s a similar pattern. DOM year to date 2016 is 75 there, down from 118 last year this time. What that indicates is that buyers have less time to consider their decision. Their dream home may not be there by the time they have looked at other options.
The takeaway for now in both Black Mountain and Buncombe County seems to be that supply continues to tighten. Over time, it is anticipated that prices will continue to increase and DOM will shorten as buyers find fewer homes to choose from. So again, with the present market conditions, it’s a fabulous time to list your home if you’ve been thinking about doing that. And as a buyer, come prepared to take action when you find the home of your dreams. With this limited supply, homes just aren’t staying on the market for very long before they sell.
At Greybeard Realty, we track market numbers monthly so be sure to check out our real estate statistics webpage to see what the market is doing now. We also have a couple of helpful buyers’ webpages, the ABCs of home buying as well as the Home Buying Process. Please visit the Greybeard webpage to see our residential listings and feel free to contact us to go see anything that catches your eye.
Reports for Asheville area land sales come across the desk periodically, but it isn’t often that they have numbers like the April report. While Asheville numbers increased 45% over the numbers year to date for last year, the Black Mountain land report for the same time period was even more astonishing.
Preface the following with the information that the number of units sold in the Asheville area (225 year to date) is substantially larger than that of Black Mountain units sold (29 for 2016 year to date). Even with that taken into account, however, the 383% increase in units sold so far in 2016 in Black Mountain is truly remarkable. As with the report for the Asheville area real estate market for the first quarter, which indicated the number of home units on the market was down, the supply for land also seems to be decreasing. With that in mind, it’s worth asking just what is driving the land sales at this time. One theory is that with the shrinking housing market, residential buyers are looking for land to build their own homes. And secondarily, it may be that people who wanted to build were waiting to be sure that the Asheville real estate market was again on a solid foundation.
Whatever it means, it bears watching over the next few months to see if this report represents a short uptick or a longer trend toward increasing land sales. To get an idea of what’s available in the area, please take a look at Greybeard’s Black Mountain land listings. If you would prefer a move-in-ready home, then glance through Greybeard Realty’s western NC residential listings. And for more information about land or home sales, please feel free to contact Greybeard Realty directly.
Glancing at the April numbers for Buncombe County real estate sales, I was struck by the significant increase in total sales volume for the month. Compared to last year at the same time, sales volume increased a hefty 25%. Now, one month does not make a trend, I understand. But the large increase is worth watching in the next few months to see just what's going on in the Asheville area real estate sales market.
In last month's quarterly report, I noted that the number of units had been shrinking. While there are a few more homes on the market this year at this time than last year, that number can be deceiving as right now 31% of the homes listed as being on the market are actually already under contract. The second piece of data that caught my eye was that the number of units for the same time period only increased 9%, which indicates there was a substantial increase in the average price. Indeed, for this year through April, the average home price in Buncombe County increased 15% over last year.
When I consider all of the statistics together, I come to one general conclusion. If you have been considering listing your home for sale in the Asheville area, this report indicates that this could be the time to do that. If you've been on the fence, it may be time to act. Greybeard has some good ideas about how to prepare your home for sale. And if you want to speak to a Realtor about how to begin the process, please contact Greybeard Realty. In terms of selling your home in the Asheville area, as the old adage goes, "there's no time like the present."
Well, the first quarter market statistics are in, and the recent trend of tightening supply seems to be impacting the real estate market in the western NC mountains. And fairly predictably, as the housing supply dwindles, land sales have surged for the first time in several years. The current numbers support the supply v demand theory so well, the statistics could be in an economics textbook.
Buncombe County Market Numbers
In Buncombe County, the number of housing units sold grew a modest 4% for the first quarter of 2016, increasing from 751 units for the same period of 2015 to 779 of the current year. Interestingly, the total sales volume grew at a larger rate, 17%, which can be accounted for in part by the 12% increase in average price, from $260,065 in 2015 to $292,094 in 2016.
A quick glance at a couple of other numbers further supports the supply versus demand economic theory. For example, Days on the Market (DOM) decreased to 87 days, down from 189 DOM as recently as 2012. In addition, the percent of sales price to market price (SP/LP) is now at 97%, again up from 93% SP/LP in the early 2010s. This indicates that buyers are paying closer to asking price, another indication of a tightening supply market.
And finally, another number that seems important to consider is the actual number of homes on the market this last quarter. That number, 1678 units, represents a dramatic decrease from the peak number of 3316 units present for the same quarter in 2010. That number in itself is very relevant. Even more impactful, however, is the actual number of those home units that are actually available. Of those 1678 units, there are actually only 1142 without contracts or 68% that are not already tentatively sold. With those kinds of numbers, it will not be surprising to see that average price per home continue its increase.
Black Mountain Market Numbers
Black Mountain market numbers require some qualification to them. Because the units sold is such a small sample, it can be a bit more difficult to extrapolate meaningful data. Still, however, looking at first quarter numbers, it appears that the market also has a tightened supply which may impact market trends in the near future. So, the number of units sold in Black Mountain shows a decrease of 16%, down from 49 units in 2015 to 41 units this year. Further, total sales volume has decreased 10% for the first quarter while the average price grew at a solid 7% for the first quarter.
And again, DOM now stands at 86 days, very close to Buncombe County numbers, and down from a hefty 204 days in 2012. And the SP/LP mirrors that of the county numbers at 97%, up from 89% for the same quarter in 2011. And as in the county statistics, the number of units on the market stands at 95, down from 7% in this quarter of 2015. If those numbers take into account the number of homes without current contracts, that number falls to only 61 units which again points to that old supply versus demand theory. Again, the market decreases mentioned above can be attributed to the very limited inventory in the area.
So what other impact have these numbers had on the market? Well, for one thing, land is gaining buyers’ attention. Indeed, county-wide, the number of land units sold has increased 35% for the first quarter of this year, with a 36% increase in dollars sold. And Black Mountain numbers reflect the same increased interest in land, just on a smaller scale with 17 units of land being sold in the first quarter, contrasted with 4 for the same period last year. With this tightening supply in the home unit market, it bears watching how that impacts land and land available.
As I study these numbers, I have to say they reflect what our Realtors at Greybeard Realty have seen in our business. As I scan Greybeard Realty's residential listings for possible homes to show potential buyers, I have been struck by how many listed homes are already under contract. My advice is that if you have a home you have been waiting to list, this could be a terrific time to do that. And if you are looking for a home in the area, there is still plenty of supply, just not as much as several years ago. If you’ve been putting off relocating or purchasing that second home in the Asheville area, you might want to move that to the front burner before prices increase more. Again, all that economic theory everyone studies seems to be holding true in our area. To keep up to speed on the western NC real estate market, please check out market numbers website.
The end of the year is always time for reflection and resolutions. And real estate is no different. The year-end numbers for real estate sales in Buncombe County and Black Mountain indicate that the market is solid. A closer reflection of the numbers reveals some interesting information.
Buncombe County Numbers
For the whole year of 2015, Buncombe County saw 4,026 units sold, a 13% increase over the same period in 2014. That number of units sold marks the fifth consecutive year of increased unit sales in the county. Further, that number also represents the highest number of units sold in the last nine years. At the same time, total sales volume showed a healthy 17% increase in 2015 over the same time in 2014. And in fact, 2015 volume was the highest in the last nine years as well.
The average price, in 2015, increased 4% to $282,224. It will be interesting to track the average price change over the next few months as recent increases have been tied to a shrinking supply. After a steady decline for the last four years, however, the number of units on the market ticked up 4%. If that increase continues, it could impact prices further out.
Black Mountain Numbers
In 2015, Black Mountain saw a strong 25% increase in the number of homes sold. The number of units sold has gained strength each year since 2010, but this number is the largest annual increase since that trend began. Sales volume in 2015 increased a remarkable 42% to $55.6 million. That number surpasses total sales volume for the last eight years.
A large portion of that sales volume increase can be attributed to the 14% increase in price that Black Mountain experienced in 2015. And, in turn, that price increase can be attributed in part to the shrinking supply of homes. While Black Mountain did not see the increase in units on the market that Buncombe County did for the same period, it did have a very modest 1% decline. That may illustrate that the Black Mountain market remains fairly tight on the supply side for now. Those numbers will bear watching in the months to come.
So after reflection, it seems important to come to some resolution. For now, the Black Mountain market seems to remain tight on supply, with prices still increasing as a result. In Buncombe County, this is the first year in some time where supply shows a slight increase. It will take some time to see if that is going to be the next trend. In the mean time, the market shows very positive signs of growth and very solid trends in the positive. It will be interesting to see how the 2016 real estate market evolves.
To stay up to date on Asheville real estate market numbers, please see Greybeard's current market statistics. If you'd like to see what's on the market right now, click on Greybeard Realty's available western NC listings. and as always, if you have any questions, please contact Greybeard Realty.
Analyzing the Western NC real estate market is similar to assembling a jigsaw puzzle. In addition to collecting the pieces and comparing the edges, a good puzzle solver also needs to be able to make an educated guess about what the next piece will be. First quarter numbers for the Asheville area indicate that the recent upward trend in the real estate market continues and has solidified. Indices including total sales volume and the number of homes sold continue to grow at a healthy rate, just one indication of the vibrant housing market the area is enjoying right now.
In Buncombe County, the number of homes sold in 2015 grew 14% over the same time period in 2014. The 715 homes sold are still below the 819 homes sold in 2007, but it represents the second consecutive year that the number of units has increased. As anticipated, the total sales volume has increased a steady 15% as well. The $195 million sales volume marks the fourth consecutive year of increases in total sales volume for year-to-date numbers. The sales figure is slightly below the $233.7 million in sales volume which occurred in 2007, the last year before the recession occurred. The price average of $260,065 represents a modest increase of 1%, a figure that is anticipated to increase as inventory continues its steady decline. The number of houses on the market is down 17% this quarter to 1,469 units on the market and down from the high of 3,316 homes available in 2010.
In Black Mountain, the real estate market grew in the first quarter of 2015 at a very robust rate. The total number of 49 units sold in the first quarter of 2015 is up 63% from the same time last year. As a further illustration of the market's growth, that number of units compares with the low of 17 units sold in the first quarter of 2009. Total sales volume, $11 million in the first quarter, represents a 71% increase over the same period last year and marks the largest sales volume in the last nine years. Interestingly, the average price per home was $228, 642, up a modest 5% from last year's number. It marks the third consecutive year of increase in the first quarter. And because inventory is at 102 homes, down 10% from last year and the sixth year of steady decrease in units, it seems reasonable to conclude that the steady increase in home prices should continue.
All the puzzle pieces seem to be falling together, indicating that home prices should begin to rise at a sharper rate and the western NC real estate market upward trend should continue. The only mystery to this puzzle is land sales which continue to lag behind the growth of existing homes. In both Buncombe County and Black Mountain, land sale units have decreased in the first quarter of 2015. In Black Mountain, in particular, the number of lots sold, four, matches the lowest number of units sold in 2012. If the inventory of existing homes continues to shrink, land sales may rise as people opt to build their own homes. However, it's going to take a few more quarters of tracking real estate and land sales to see if that final piece falls into place. For more information about the Greybeard western NC listings, please contact Greybeard Realty.
Over the last year, monthly reports have indicated that this could be a great year for Asheville area real estate sales. And now that the 2014 year-end numbers for Buncombe County and Black Mountain have been released, statistics confirm that this last year indeed was a very positive one. In both markets, figures confirm that the steady growth has continued through the year.
Asheville area sales showed a steady increase at year's end with the number of units sold increasing 4% from 2013 to 3,577 homes sold. Total sales volume grew 8% to more than $967 million while the average price per home increased 4% to $270,376. In fact, the only declining numbers reported for the region were in "days on the market" and the "number of units on the market" which decreased by 13% to 1,489 homes. This decline illustrates the tightening of supply on the market which should lead to increase prices in the future.
Black Mountain numbers mirrored those of Buncombe County, and the numbers were even stronger for this region. The number of units sold reached 170 for the year, a 13% increase over 2013. In addition, sales volume grew to more than $39 million, a 28% increase over last year. Also, the average price per home grew 13% to $229,838, a bit lower than Buncombe County prices. And similar to the County numbers, "days on the market" decreased to pre-2010 levels and the "number of units on the market" decreased by 13%, to 95 units. Like the Buncombe County numbers, all of these are still below the peak market numbers from 2006-2007.
While these numbers are all still below the peak numbers of 2006/2007, there are signs that perhaps numbers are inching back up toward those peak numbers. In the month of December 2014 in Buncombe County, 317 homes sold. Compare that with 239 that sold that month in 2013 and the December 2006 peak of 276 homes. Sales volume for December 2014 was $94.2 million compared to $59.6 million in December 2013 and $83.6 million in December 2006. While it is difficult to draw any firm conclusions after just one month, given the positive year-end numbers and the strong growth level of December 2014, it may be that these 2014 year-end numbers are just a harbinger of the good times to come.
Greybeard Realty tracks real estate sales statistics which can be accessed at real estate statistics and trends on the website. For more information or for assistance in buying or selling a home in the Asheville area, please contact Greybeard Realty.
At Greybeard Realty, we monitor Asheville market news, always looking for indicators of how the housing market is growing. In the last month, we've seen some very interesting numbers that may foretell of further area growth in the coming year.
In the month of July, the number of housing units sold in Buncombe County reached 374 units. This figure surpasses the 362 homes sold in July of 2006 which was the peak for the number of unit sold. While the July 2014 average sales price of each home was a bit below the 2006 high, we see other numbers the lead us to believe those prices may be increasing over the next year as well.
For one example, the Asheville area had the lowest number of foreclosure filings in the last 5 years this summer with less than one in 100 homes going into foreclosure. With fewer distressed sales, prices should begin inching up. In addition, while year-to-date numbers are still slightly below the 2006/2007 peak in total sales volume and average price, both of those figures are up so far in 2014. Total Sales Volume is up 9% over the same period last year while average price is up 5% in 2014 for the same time in 2013. And perhaps the greatest indicator of potential growth in home price and sales volume is the continuation of the shrinking home inventory. From its peak of 3472 units for sale as this time in 2010, the number of units on the market year-to-date for 2014 stands at 2056 homes.
At Greybeard, we understand that one month of numbers do not represent a trend. We also know, however, that as the Asheville housing market continues to show these positive signs, it is reasonable to anticipate that the market will continue to show this strength. To see what's on the Asheville real estate market, browse through our Asheville listings. And please contact Greybeard Realty if you're ready to make a move to the Asheville area.
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