Blog :: 08-2017

Western NC Market Numbers Add Up to Solid Growth

The first six months of Asheville real estate statistics further confirm the solid positioning of home sales in 2017. In both Buncombe County and in Black Mountain, sales figures continue to indicate that the western NC home sales market is strong and growing steadily.

Black Mountain Market

In Black Mountain, the numbers of homes sold dropped 16%, but that decline can be attributed more to lack of supply than a falling market. Sales volume stayed steady despite the units sold drop which indicates that the average price increased, up 19% over 2016 year to date prices. With the meager change in the number of homes on the market, only a 1% increase over 2016 numbers, the tight supply continues. At mid-year, there were only 106 homes on the market, and 30 of those listed actually were under contract but had not yet closed.

Black Mountain Log Cabin for SaleThe average home price for homes sold to date in 2017, $294,642, has surpassed the record high that occurred in 2008, $286,926, prior to the severe economic issues and stock market decline. That price increase coupled with the steady sales price/list price ratio of 97% and the significant decrease in days on market (DOM) from 81 days to merely 64 days so far in 2017 are all further indications of the incredibly tight market right now in Black Mountain. As always, it’s important to add the caveat that Black Mountain is a small market sample. Interestingly, a look at Buncombe County numbers only solidifies these observations.

Buncombe County Market 

The number of homes sold in year-to-date in 2017, 1991, represents a small 1% increase over the same time period in 2016. At the same time, total sales volume has grown 10%, from $601.1 million to $659.5 million. The average home price has increased 9% in 2017 to $331,255, which is a solid increase. That rise in price is even more significant when you take a look at the average home price for the same period in 2009, $270,089. That’s a fairly impressive increase over a not very long time.

As we saw in the Black Mountain market analysis, the DOM has decreased, from 75 days in 2016 to 71 this year. Compare that with the 2009 DOM of 131 days. That means that homes sat on the market for almost 4.5 months in 2009, compared to just over 2 months in 2017. At the same time, the sales price/ list price (SP/LP) held steady in 2017 at 98%. It’s interesting to look back again to 2009, when SP/LP ran at 94%. And again, that tightening of asking versus sales price ratio can be attributed to a continuing shrinking of the houses on the market. Year-to-date 2017, there are 1921 units on the market, a 2% decrease in the market over 2016. And consider the number of units on the market in 2009 at this point in the year, 3406 homes. That number really illustrates what’s happened in the western NC housing market over the last few years. It’s a classic supply versus demand lesson, and, if you follow that theory, you can anticipate that prices will continue to rise as the market shrinks.

Conclusion

In Black Mountain and Buncombe County real estate markets, it’s anticipated that home prices will continue to rise. It will be interesting to see just how low supply will go. It’s notable that the decrease in units has slowed slightly in the last few months. In addition to an anticipated price increase, it’s also possible that DOM may further diminish as the competition for listed homes rises. It’s hard to imagine the SP/LP rising much more, but anecdotally, some buyers are finding themselves competing with other buyers for the same home. That may mean sales prices may begin to match or even surpass list prices. That bears watching over the next six to 10 months.

So, if you have a home you’ve been sitting on, waiting for the right time, it may be that time has arrived. It’s a good time to list your home and expect a relatively quick sale, if the home is appropriately priced. On the other hand, if you’re considering buying in the area, there are still plenty of fine homes on the market, just fewer of them than in prior years. If you’re buying, come ready to make an offer and do not anticipate that sellers are going to accept offers that are not fairly close in line with the asking price.

If you have questions about homes for sale in western NC, please contact Greybeard Realty. And if you’d like to track market trends, take a look at our Real Estate Market webpage. While the supply is smaller, Greybeard Realty still has plenty of Asheville area home listings to show you. In addition, there doesn’t appear to be any expected decline in prices for the short term. If you want to have a western NC home, now is the time to make the move. Let us know at Greybeard how we can help make that happen for you. We look forward to hearing from you.