As summer transitions to the fall color season in the mountains of Western North Carolina, year-to-date median prices are flat across the board. Buncombe has flatlined at $490,000. Burke County sits at $273,500, and McDowell County is at $300,000. In July's report, year-to-date median prices were down 2.8% in Buncombe, 1.8% in Burke, and 6.7% in McDowell. Pending sales are sending opposing messages across counties, with Buncombe down 9.8% in September, Burke up 28.6%, and McDowell up 17.6%.

Regional Scorecard: Buncombe, Burke & McDowell

Buncombe County: Steady Closings, Inventory Edging Up

In Buncombe County, closed sales are up 7.3% year to date (2,636 vs. 2,457) and 3.2% in September. Third-quarter closings were up roughly 9%, based on year-to-date totals.

In July, we asked whether Buncombe's inventory growth would begin to outpace closings. In June, Buncombe closings (+18.6%) were running well ahead of inventory (+5.6%). By September, inventory (+4.8%) edged ahead of closings (+3.2%). Year to date, closings still lead, so September is a signal to watch, not yet a trend.

Days on market remain well above last year's pace (+28.6% year to date), though the gap has narrowed since July, when it was +43.4%. September ran faster than last September, with days on market at 66, down 5.7%. List-to-close is up 15.2% year to date at 114 days, and sellers received 93.2% of their original list price year to date, down from 94.1%.

September pending sales fell 9.8% (296 vs. 328), which could point to softer closings in Q4, though seasonality may explain part of it.

Burke County: Closings Improve as Inventory Keeps Growing

YTD closings in Burke County improved from an 11.9% decline to a 2.9% decline. September closings increased an impressive 34%, 71 closings vs 53. Months' supply rose from 4.6 in June to 5.2 and inventory is up 21.8% alongside a new listing increase of 10.4% YTD. Unlike Buncombe and McDowell County, Burke County was the only county where sellers were able to capture more of their list price YTD – up from 93.4% to 94.3%. Days on market and list-to-close times are flat.

McDowell County: A Soft Market With Prices Holding

McDowell County has shown itself to be a soft market in previous months and it remains so. Months' supply sits at 7.2 and percent of list price declined from 92.3% to 91.3%. Days on market are up 19%, and list-to-close time is up 8.3%. YTD closings are down 9.2% but new listings are flat in the County and inventory is only up 5.8%.

What Changed Since Q2 and Our July Report?

In July we posed three questions. Here is where the answers landed.

Will Buncombe's inventory growth outpace closings?

Not by much, and only recently. By the end of June, closings were running a good bit ahead of inventory. As the end of September rolled around, inventory edged ahead. Closings are up 7.3% YTD, while new listings are up just 0.9%, so supply isn't seeing a large increase.

Will Burke's months' supply continue to rise?

Yes, it climbed from 4.6 in June to 5.2 in September. Inventory is up 21.8% from a year ago. Burke's sales have recovered, but listings grew at a quicker clip.

Will McDowell's price softening find a floor?

It looks like it has hit the floor. McDowell's YTD median price went from down 6.7% in July to up 0.3% at $300,000. However, McDowell only closes around 30-40 homes a month, so a handful of sales can skew the number in one direction or another.

A couple other items changed. Median prices flattened in all three counties. The slowdown eased: YTD days on market growth moderated from +43.4% to +28.6% in Buncombe and from +24.6% to +19% in McDowell.

Sellers

Best advice? Plan for lengthier timelines. Price for your county.

• List-to-close is running at 114 days in Buncombe County, 118 in McDowell – nearly four months from listing to closing. Burke is showing steadier signals at 100 days, unchanged from last year.

• Buncombe County sellers are receiving 93.2% of their original asking price (down from 94.1%), and McDowell sellers are receiving 91.3% (down from 92.3%). Burke sellers are actually receiving more than last year at 94.3% (up from 93.4%). The list price and sales price gap is most notable in McDowell County.

• Buncombe's September ran faster than its year-to-date pace. Days on market were 66, down 5.7% from last September, while the year-to-date figure is still up 28.6%. Homes that are priced correctly are still moving.

Buyers

Buyer leverage varies by county.

• McDowell: has the most buyer leverage of the three counties. Months' supply is 7.2, homes are selling for 91.3% of original list price, and days on market are up 19%.

• Buncombe: months' supply is 6.3, above the 6-month mark. This is often utilized as the red line between a balanced and buyer-leaning market, though it is down from 6.7 a year ago. Buyers have room to negotiate, but conditions are not looser than the same time last year.

• Burke: inventory is growing fastest (up 21.8%), yet sellers still captured a higher share of their list price than last year.

What to Watch in Q4

• Buncombe: Will September's 9.8% decrease in pending sales (296 vs 328) show up as fewer closings this quarter? Will September's faster pace hold through Q4? Worthwhile to compare this against Q4 2025, since the fall slowdown is a seasonal trend.

• Burke: Was September's closing surge (71 vs 53) a pattern set in motion, or just a strong month? It will also be interesting to see if sellers continue to capture 94% of list price as inventory climbs.

• McDowell: Watch whether the $300,000 median holds firm, and whether September's 17.6% increase in pending sales (40 vs. 34) shifts into closings.

Common Questions About the 2026 Regional Market

Is the Buncombe County (Asheville) real estate market slowing down in 2026?

The market isn't slowing down in closings. It is slowing down in speed. Buncombe County closed sales are up 7.3% YTD (2,636 vs 2,457) and up 3.2% for the month of September. Burke County closings are down 2.9% YTD – an improvement from an almost 12% decline in July. September closings jumped 34%. McDowell County closings have decreased 9.2% YTD, however September was up 5.3%. Buncombe's September pending sales being down 9.8% could correlate with softer closings in Q4.

Are home prices dropping in Western North Carolina?

No, not at the moment. Year-to-date median prices have flattened in all three counties: $490,000 in Buncombe, $273,500 in Burke, and $300,000 in McDowell. In July those figures were down 2.8%, 1.8%, and 6.7% respectively. Buncombe County's average price is up 4.6% YTD – likely higher priced sales pulling the average sales price above the median sales price.

Why are homes taking longer to sell in 2026?

It varies by county. YTD, days on market are up 28.6% in Buncombe (72 days) and 19% in McDowell (75 days), while Burke is flat at 59 days. Buncombe's pace has improved since July, when it was up 43.4% and September was 5.7% faster than last September. Closed sales and pending sales YTD are both up in Buncombe County so the slower pace appears to be related to buyers taking their time with negotiation. McDowell, on the other hand, may reflect softer demand with both closings and pending sales down YTD.

Which Western North Carolina county has the most buyer negotiating power right now?

McDowell County. The county has the most supply (7.2 months), sellers are receiving 91.3% of original list price YTD, and days on market are up 19%. Burke's inventory is growing the fastest, up 21.8% from a year ago. However, sellers are receiving more of their asking price than last year (94.3%).

Need a competent guide to help you navigate a market that is continually changing? GreyBeard Realty has agents at office locations across the region: Asheville, Black Mountain, Old Fort, and Lake James. Contact our team to ensure a seamless real estate process from start to finish.

The Asheville Market Numbers

After years as a tight seller's market with stable pricing, the Asheville market is now sending mixed signals. Median price is down 4.3% YTD, from last year's $515,000 to $493,000, and days on market until sale have jumped 41.5%, from 53 to 75 days — both signs of softening demand relative to recent years.

As we move through the middle of 2026, the year-to-date numbers are in — and they tell a story of two markets. Buncombe County and Asheville, the region's commercial and population center, are diverging sharply from the trends emerging in Burke and McDowell Counties. 

Buncombe's closed sales are up in June (+18.6%) and 6.1% year-to-date, while Burke and McDowell are showing clear signs of cooling — fewer closings, softer prices, and inventory building faster than demand can absorb it.

Spring is in full swing in the mountains of Western North Carolina, and the GreyBeard Realty team is back with insights on what has been happening in the real estate market in 2026 for the first few months of the year. Numbers through March reveal a continuation of a theme that was a large part of the narrative of 2025: A shift from a fortified seller’s market to a more neutral, balanced market, and, as we’ll see in some particular counties, the trends are shifting in favor of buyers. 

Buncombe County and Asheville Area Market Real Estate Trends

Is Asheville and Buncombe County a buyer's or seller's market?

Real estate activity was strong in Buncombe County at the start of 2026. Pending sales through Q1 increased 7.2% year over year. March showed a 20.5% increase in pending sales compared to the same period last year. March also saw an 8% increase in new listings; however, it’s worth noting that YTD, new listings declined by 3.5%. While this provides a mixed picture, inventory levels remain higher than last year by 20.2% or 1,232 homes for sale. 

Are affordability and interest rate concerns impacting the market?

Days on market trends through Q1 increased an eye-popping 42.2% year over year to an average of 91 days. Last year, that number was 64 days. Closed sales YTD decreased by 2.1%, and the median closed price slid to $460,000, a decrease of 2.9% compared to last year. Average sales prices are still strong at $623,089 YTD, an increase of 5.7%. This opposing story for the average sales price suggests that higher-end properties are still appreciating. Overall, these numbers suggest that the real estate process is shifting towards a buyer's timetable, and they are taking their time to make purchasing decisions compared to last year.

How close to the asking price are sellers able to achieve in the current market?

For folks listing their homes for sale in Buncombe County, the percent of original list price received has declined by 2.9%, or 91.7%. Last year, the ratio sat at 94.4%, slightly more in favor of sellers. This statistic aligns with the lengthened days on market trends and suggests that buyers are having more success with negotiations than in past years. With higher inventory levels, buyers are willing to wait for the right property at the right price, and sellers will do well to price with intention. 

McDowell County and Asheville Area Market Real Estate Trends

Is McDowell County a buyer's or seller's market?

Marion, Old Fort, and the whole of McDowell County are showing more profound signs of a cooling market than their neighbor, Buncombe County. YTD closed sales declined by 12.4%, and pending sales fell 9.5% compared to Q1 of last year. New listings look almost identical to last year, with 144 listings compared to 145 at the same time last year. Spring’s notoriety as the “listing season” for our region has come through with a notable 42% increase in new listings and 11.5% in closed sales. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues through the spring and summer months.

It is worth noting that McDowell County may have been a harbinger of the buyers’ market to come, as it experienced indications of softening earlier than Buncombe County in the previous year.

Are affordability and interest rate concerns impacting the market?
 

Of the three markets we report on each month, McDowell County leans on the more affordable side. YTD, the median sales price was $295,000, a decrease of nearly 5% from last year when it sat at $310,000. YTD days on market show a 36% increase from 77 days last year to over 3 months or 105 days this year. Buyers are moving cautiously and taking advantage of the shift in real estate trends.
 

What else is notable about McDowell County?
 

The average sales price of $422,253 is an increase of 14%. However, it is worth noting that this is based on a small number of homes and could be skewed by a handful of high-value sales. The months’ supply of inventory is almost identical to last year, at 5.2 months vs 5.3 months at this time last year. 

Burke County Area Market Real Estate Trends

Is Burke County a buyer's or seller's market?
 

Burke County is experiencing a contraction of supply and demand simultaneously. New listings decreased 12.1%, and closed sales have declined 13.9%. Inventory also decreased 7.4% to 212 homes for sale. Compared to Buncombe and McDowell, Burke has a much tighter supply after Q1. 
 

What are the pricing trends in Burke County?
 

Median prices were dialed in at $274,900, a mild 1.5% decrease from last year’s $279,000. The average sales price decreased slightly. Burke County is currently faring better than both McDowell and Buncombe County for the percentage of the original list price ratio – 93% (up a minor .2% compared to last year). The overall transaction volume is slow, but prices appear to be stable in this market, and supply is also tighter.
 

What other trends are worth noting in Burke County?

Burke County hasn’t been immune to days on market increases. During Q1, Burke County days on market trends shifted to 81 days compared to 75 days last year. This is not as dramatic as Buncombe and McDowell County, but it is an increase nonetheless. Burke County is already the most affordable of the three we report on, and prices appear relatively stable.
 

Conclusion

We continue to see normalization in Buncombe, Burke, and McDowell counties. Buyers have more leverage than they did in past years. Days on market are increasing in all markets, and prices are softening. Activity levels have balanced, but demand appears to still be present. As we write this in early May, it will be interesting to see what the numbers reveal as we get deeper into the spring months and early summer. Typically, Q1 numbers capture traditional seasonality, which can impact inventory levels. 

Explore more market trends on our website, or contact the real estate experts at GreyBeard Realty today with any questions.

Happy New Year from the team at GreyBeard Realty! We hope that 2026 is off to a great start in your world. In this market report, we plan to review the closing numbers of 2025 for local real estate trends and offer a few insights into where we think the market is headed next.  Our past market analysis over 2025 reported on the notable shift [...]

Previous month’s trends have shown the Western North Carolina real estate market is experiencing a cooling phase, and Q3 of 2025 is a continuation of that pattern with our once tight seller’s market shifting to a more balanced market – now in favor of a buyer’s market. The one data anomaly is a sharp increase in pending sales. While the 64% [...]

Q2 Market Analysis | Buncombe, Burke, and McDowell Counties

In April’s Q1 market update, we reported on the market softening trends that we observed signs of as early as July 2024. A red-hot seller’s market was seeing movement towards a more balanced market. As we approach a year after this notable transition, the numbers reveal a perpetual trajectory towards a buyer’s market in Buncombe County’s long-time seller’s market, but McDowell and Burke County are not necessarily following suit.

Buncombe County Market

In Buncombe County, 184 more listings were added to the market than were taken off the market (changed to under contract status). New listings increased by 11% and total inventory increased by 78% (1,589) compared to June 2024. The month’s supply of inventory doubled to 6.2 months. Closings were down 9.2% compared to June 2024. The increase in inventory and the decrease in closings have forced a downward pressure on prices. The median price is down 6.9% compared to 2024, year-to-date numbers.

Burke County Market

Closer to Lake James, Burke County has remained a seller’s market and isn’t showing the significant increase in inventory that Buncombe County has experienced. The month’s supply is 3.3 months, only a slight increase from 2024. New listings year-to-date are down 5.5% from 2024, and closings are flat. As a result, we are not seeing the same downward price pressure. The median price is up 9.8%, and the average price is up 6.1%. We don’t have a definitive reason for the difference between the Buncombe and Burke County markets. Some may speculate that it could relate to the impact of Hurricane Helene from last September, which had a more notable impact on Buncombe County than in Burke County.

McDowell County Market

McDowell County is pacing as a neutral market with a 6.5-month supply of inventory. New listings increased by 20% (66), and homes that went under contract rose by 15% (47) compared to 2024.  Homes sold increased by 19% over 2024—a really surprising increase compared to last month and other counties. The average sales price was up 7% compared to 2024, making the average sales price of a home in McDowell County $26,000 more than in 2024. 

Conclusion

It’s a bit difficult to find a common thread when comparing Buncombe, Burke, and McDowell counties to one another coming out of Q2. Trends have less commonality compared to past months. Buncombe’s market continues to soften toward a buyer’s market, Burke County is showing signs of a robust seller’s market, and while McDowell County has a higher month's supply than Buncombe County, the average price also rose 7%. We will continue to monitor these trends over the next month to see if these opposing trends continue across counties. 

If you are interested in learning more about what these market trends could mean for your prospects when buying or selling your home in Buncombe, Burke, McDowell, or any surrounding counties, contact our GreyBeard Realty team. You can also browse the latest Asheville homes for sale to get a pulse on the market, along with other Western North Carolina real estate listings.

In January’s outlook, we suggested that trends were pointing towards a more balanced market with flatter prices. This shift in market trends isn’t a direct result of Helene’s impact–contrary to what might be assumed. Even as of July 2024, before the hurricane, we were noticing indications of a more balanced market as supply was on the [...]

Five months after Hurricane Helene devastated communities and riverside areas in Western North Carolina, signs of the ongoing recovery remain, but we are also proud to say that a lot of progress has been made in our region, and the people in our communities have exhibited incredible resilience. The Army Corps of Engineers recently projected [...]

Asheville Market Update and Analysis

The question that has been reverberating across our brokerage walls and in GreyBeard agents’ conversations with friends and clients over the past few months is one you might have yourself – how has Hurricane Helene impacted the Asheville and Western NC real estate market? While the full answer will take [...]